Wednesday, April 15, 2009

Population growth in the future.

The chart shows three possible scenarios for the future of world population growth, from 2000 to 2050. It indicates what will likely happen by 2050 if we have high, medium or low fertility rates.

If the trend worldwide is towards a high fertility rate, 2.5 children per woman, we can expect a world population of about 10.7 billion. The current rate in India is 2.72 and this is important because the Indian population is over 1 billion. Similarly the rate in Arab countries is high, for example 2.42 here in the UAE and 2.66 in Egypt. If, however, we see medium fertility, as in the USA, 2.05, the world figure in 2050 will be around 8.9 billion. With low fertility, as in Europe (Spain 1.31, the UK 1.66) and Japan, 1.21, the figure will be about 7.3 billion.

If current rates in China, 1.79, and India, the two most populous countries, continue, we’ll probably see a figure of close to 10 billion by 2050. With a low fertility rate, the figure will be nearer 7 billion and , significantly, declining.

179 words.

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